A new poll suggests Labour have 90 per cent chance of winning in Wycombe in next general election.

A new poll by polling firm, Electoral Calculus, has predicted that Labour candidate, Emma Reynolds, could end the Conservative's 72-year hold of the Wycombe constituency in an upcoming general election.

It predicts she will secure 49.7 per cent of the vote whereas incumbent Conservative MP, Steve Baker is predicted to receive 28.2 per cent. These results would give Labour an approximate majority of 9486 votes equivalent to 21.5 percent of the vote share.

The poll is based on national polling of 16,840 people conducted throughout June and July, therefore showing current voting intention. The next general election has not yet been called but must be held before January 2025.

The specific time is for the Prime Minister to choose and whilst polls can be indicative, there can be significant changes in polling during a campaign.

MP for Wycombe, Steve Baker, told the Free Press: “As shown in the recent by-election in Uxbridge, these projections are often inaccurate and should not be taken seriously. As I have said in all four elections I have stood and won in Wycombe, I never take Wycombe for granted, and neither should Labour.”

In national polls, Labour is consistently polling at around 45 percentage points versus the Conservative’s 26 percentage points. Last month, the Conservatives lost two of the three by-elections held, which can provide an insight into a general election result, however narrowly retained local seat, Uxbridge and South Ruislip.

Polling expert, Sir John Curtice, explained that there remained a “depressing message” for the Conservatives in the polls though as even when including the Uxbridge and South Ruislip result, they remained “a long way behind.”

Labour candidate, Emma Reynolds, told the Free Press: “Whether on the cost of living, the energy crisis, the housing shortage, or our schools and hospitals – the Conservative record is one of failure. People in Wycombe and across the country are desperate for change, but we take nothing for granted.

“We're working hard to convince people to vote Labour, in some cases for the first time ever. Last month we spoke to over 1,000 residents and have received lots of positive feedback. We continue to knock on people's doors and listen to their concerns and priorities for Wycombe.”

She was previously MP for Wolverhampton North East from 2010 to 2019 before losing her seat in the general election to the Conservatives. She also served in the Shadow Cabinet under Ed Miliband during her time in parliament. Now, she lives in Holmer Green with her husband and two sons.

Mr Baker responded: “The fact the Labour candidate is a former MP from Wolverhampton who has never, and still does not, live in the constituency, makes me worry that Labour are arrogantly assuming that Wycombe will vote for them regardless.

He continued: “The Government and I are focused on supporting hard-working families and individuals with the cost of living by bringing down inflation, lowering energy costs, and opposing Labour schemes like the ULEZ expansion.”