The Conservative Party could be wiped out in Buckinghamshire if a general election was held tomorrow, prompting the biggest political shake-up of the county in a generation.

That’s according to research compiled by political forecasting website Electoral Calculus.

This would see longstanding MPs such as Steve Baker and Iain Stewart lose their seats after having served more than 26 years representing constituents in parliament. Meanwhile, Rob Butler and Ben Everitt will leave Westminster after serving only a single term.

Buckinghamshire has long been considered a Conservative stronghold.

Whilst no date has yet been set, it is widely anticipated to occur in late 2024 and must be held no later than January 24, 2025.

At present, the Conservatives possess all but one of the seven parliamentary seats in the county. But the party’s dominance was first brought into question following the loss of the Chesham and Amersham by-election to the Liberal Democrats in 2021.

Looking forward, Electoral Calculus predicts this decline will continue, with their research suggesting the Conservatives will lose a further four seats in the area.

To make its predictions, the pollster uses the results of both public polls and their own in-house national polls.

This is then combined with census information about the local population and takes into consideration recent voting behaviour to form a prediction for each individual seat.

Their findings listed four Buckinghamshire seats on the vulnerable list, with the constituencies of Aylesbury, Milton Keynes North, Milton Keynes South, and Wycombe all expected to swing in the Labour Party’s favour.

And the Liberal Democrats are likely to retain Chesham and Amersham. However, readers should note that some of these constituencies will be subject to boundary changes come the next election, although this is unlikely to impact these predictions.

If such predictions are accurate, and opinions remain primarily unchanged, this would mark a monumental political shift.

After all, Aylesbury has elected a Conservative to parliament in every general election since 1924.

But now it seems Labour will likely oust the incumbent Rob Butler who won in 2019 with a commanding 54 per cent share of the vote.

And in Wycombe, the seat of the Eurosceptic frontman Steve Baker, Labour’s chances of winning currently stand at an astonishing 91 per cent with the party expected to secure 50.2 per cent of the vote. This dramatic change should not be understated considering the Conservatives withstood Tony Blair’s monumental 1997 landslide victory in both seats.

Mark Bateman, the Chair of the Aylesbury Labour Party, believes his party will provide a new approach to governance that will prioritise working people by focusing on growing the economy, cheap green energy, and ensuring job security and fair incomes for all.

He said: ‘He [Rob Butler] has until quite recently been invisible in this constituency… Do the people in this constituency feel levelled up Mr Butler? A lot of talk about Aylesbury becoming a Garden town.

“Not much evidence or change here to show any difference. A Bucks Choice housing waiting list that appears to be growing and a promise of a new rail link to Milton Keynes apparently mothballed.”

The Bucks Free Press reached out to various Conservative MPs for comments but received no response.